The Bar: Cameron Maybin’s Return to a Crowded House

This is where we gather from time to time to talk about something big in the Padres world or just the Padres or just baseball. It’s a roundtable discussion. Except, you know, no round tables. This is a Public House . . . so we’re at the bar.

Old-Fashioned-Bar

As Cameron Maybin catches fire in Tucson, it appears reasonable to conclude that his wrist is healed and that he’ll be returning to San Diego sooner rather than later. In regards to Maybin’s return I have two questions:

  1. What will the corresponding roster move be? What should the move be, in your opinion?
  2. How will Bud Black manage the playing time for his outfielders? How should Bud Black manage the playing time for his outfielders?

Ghost of Ray Kroc

Should be Jesus Guzman. Probably will be something that doesn’t make any sense. Like Kyle Blanks.

Bud will do what he always does. Play the match-ups. As in, right handed starter means all left handed hitters. And vice versa. Hot bat be damned!

Avenging Jack Murphy

When Cameron Maybin returns I think the correct move would be to DFA Jesus Guzman. Did we ever establish whether or not he has minor league options available? I think this is the move that the Padres will make. It’s not 2011 anymore. Guzman does not have a big gold ring that says, “Jesus Saves.” If Kyle Blanks gets sent to Tucson I’ll probably have a mental break down.

I imagine we’ll see Cameron Maybin back in CF and the Venorfable platoon in RF with Blanks spelling Quentin as needed. I suppose I can live with this but I would like to see Maybin earn his ABs. Norf should get into the line-up against some RHP with Venable playing CF and Maybin taking a seat. It also needs to be recognized that Will Venable just isn’t that good against RHP, either. Get more ABs for Kyle Blanks.

Vocal Minority (Nate)

The right move has been said already: DFAing Guzman. What I’m guessing they’ll do is figure out how to put someone on the DL in order to delay having to make a real move. My guess is that Kotsay will come up with some kind of back problem, because he’s a true professional like that.

As for who plays? Everyone plays. They all get 2 innings and at bat every night, right? Little League rules apply.

AJM

I mentioned the other night that if Bud Black was a country he would be Finland. Bud’s a socialist manager. Everyone plays!

Left Coast Bias

The corresponding move? I think we are all in agreement that the move should be Guzman. I actually think Kotsay has been a serviceable PH. Of course his presence continually tempts Bud to put him out in the field for reasons that pass understanding. As I said on Sunday, I’d rather roll the dice with Blanks vs RHP than Kotsay at 1st. Perhaps this injury to Alonso lingers a bit and that ends up being the corresponding move (DL). Of course, that doesn’t really solve the problem, it only pushes the problem out a few weeks. But it worked for Street (whose injury seems very mysterious to me) to get Erlin up for Saturday’s start.

As for what the move WILL be? That’s anyone’s guess. I would be stunned if it’s Kyle Blanks at this point. Kyle has done everything he’s been asked to do and has certainly earned being with the MLB club. Considering Quentin’s, um, sliding skills and now diving skills in the field you got to think an injury is coming sooner rather than later.

Now, managing the outfield. With Maybin we are looking at 6 OF’s (including Amarista, whose label as an OF is tenuous at best). Assuming he’s healthy (i.e. doesn’t need a day off ) Quentin is in LF. I’d put Maybin in CF and Deno in LF at this point. Essentially a trade of offense (Blanks) for defense (Maybin). This is subject to the pitching match-up of the day of course. If the game gets late and they need offense, move Deno to CF, Blanks to RF. If it’s late and they are holding a lead, keep it as is (or if you need a bit of both, move Deno to CF and Venable to RF).

Keep in mind I say this as an unabashed Maybin fan. I still see the 5-tool player that he can be and remain convinced he will be. Plus he seems like such a nice guy.

RJ’s Fro (Rick)

I’m guessing the corresponding move will be either a DL stint for someone to delay the decision making process or sending Blanks back down using the typical “he needs consistent at bats” excuse.

On the other hand, the move that I think SHOULD be made is to do something with either Guzman or Venable (DFA/Trade). Which is kind of funny since they are the two who had the game winning hits against the Mariners and Blue Jays last week. I don’t see much of a future here for either one of them. To be honest there have been numerous times where I actually forget that Guzman is even on the team still. And Venable’s price is going to go up considerably next year and despite everyone saying year in and year out that he’s finally “fixed things”, he’s the same player he has always been.

It all depends on how Maybin responds to major league pitching. He struggled earlier this year and if he continues to struggle I see Buddy using more of a rotating door based on match-ups.

Padres Trail

Just to dissent, and just looking at WAR. No doubt Guzman (-0.5) has been awful this year. So have Maybin (-0.5) and Kotsay (-0.2).

You know who has the seventh best WAR for the Padres since the start of the 2011 season? Guzman (2.5). Go figure. Kotsay? -0.3 over that span. Guzman is also 9 years younger than Mark.

Jesus is never going to be an everyday player but he still murders LH pitching. Kotsay’s best days are behind him.

I’d release Kotsay.

GRAK

Maybin’s return should, at the very least, keep Bud from starting Amarista in CF. Man, how I despise it to see his name listed in the starting nine with the number 8 next to it.

Of course, this is Bud Black we’re talking about. If Maybin comes back and stinks up the joint at the plate, there’s nothing to stop BudBot from “playing the match-ups” and putting Amarista in there against right-handed starters.

LCB

That’s the thing. Even if he [Maybin] sinks up the joint at the plate it still seems worth it for what he gives you in the field. Perhaps I’m over-valuing what he brings defensively?

RF (Rick)

I’m not one to criticize lineups. Buddy and the group have way more baseball knowledge than me, but I will say that every time Amarista is in CF you might as well throw a clown hat on him and play some circus music because every fly ball is a circus act.

PT

Dick Enberg thinks Amarista gets a tremendous jump on the ball. He said so Friday night. Wonder what he thought about Alexi’s jump on the ball off his glove last [Saturday] night.

GRAK

Amarista DOES get a tremendous jump on the ball. It’s what he does when the ball actually gets to him that has me pulling out my hair. And I don’t have that much hair left to pull out. I’m pretty much pulling off skin now.

AJM

With all due respect to Dick Enberg I’m just not prepared to trust his assessment of a miniature human (Amarista) running around in a distant outfield.

By the numbers it probably makes more sense to keep Jesus over Kotsay but I think they value Kotsay’s intangibles. Yonder Alonso was raving about all of the counsel he has received from Kotsay in 2012 and 2013.

PT

You watch more Padres games than I have been able to, so I’ll happily concede the point re: Amarista’s overall play.

However, on the play Enberg got all misty about Friday night, the ball hung up. I could have started where Amarista did and made that play. And I thought he got a lousy jump on the ball that glanced off his glove last [Saturday] night.

Vocal Minority (David)

Kotsay isn’t going anywhere. Leadership, grit, character, and a Korner. Kotsay was a negative fWAR player last year, a negative fWAR player this year, but he’s hitting .273. He’s hitting .316 as a pinch hitter, which is more than enough for the club to justify keeping him around. If Buddy could manage to stop inserting him into the starting lineup, completely, I could live with that.

If we’re thinking long-term, Jesus Guzman isn’t the answer. He was never long for the club, and if he’s not DFA now, he certainly won’t be returning in 2014. To sum it up: I think the move will be and should be Jesus Guzman. I suspect we’ll see a DL stint that allows him to stick around, but it will only delay the inevitable.

As for how Black should manage his outfield? Keep Amarista the fuck out of it.

VM (Nate)

On Kotsay: I think we’d all choose him as the first to go if we thought there was a chance it could happen. I just don’t see it as a possibility. Like I said earlier, he certainly could be a temporary fall guy, in that the team could claim he fell down and hurt his back, but I don’t think they’ll DFA him. He’s basically a player-coach at this point.

And Amarista may not just be out of CF. He could be off the 25 man roster once Logan Forsythe comes back. Unless they really hate Kyle Blanks as much as it sometimes seems like they do.

Then Buddy bats Amarista and his sub-.300 OBP 2nd and doesn’t pinch hit for him in the 8th with Quentin available. I have no idea what’s going to happen.

RF (Rick)

The Forsythe roster move is another huge question. This team has a lot of decisions to make regarding it’s roster and judging by this past off season, Byrnes doesn’t like to make decisions. This worries me.

***

What do you think? Pull up a stool . . .

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  • GoldenBoy

    Looks like Bud Black’s outfield will soon consist of Blanktin, Camrista and Venorfia. I say we trade Venable asap, send Guzman down (he still has options) and send up Maybin & Forsythe.

  • http://padrespublic.com/woe-doctor/ Bryant

    My suggestion is that they stop letting Cameron Maybin play with a wrist injury that has lingered since the end of 2011 and is serious enough that they’ve already indicated it will likely require offseason surgery. This team isn’t going to compete for any titles this season and you’ve got several years left of Maybin’s contract. Let him get healthy and aim for a 2014 return.

    • http://twitter.com/AvengingJM Avenging Jack Murphy

      Yeah. If surgery is inevitable then get it done now.

  • SanDiegoJosh

    Am I the only one that would rather see Blanks at 1B over Alonso full time?

    • http://www.ghostofrak.com/ GhostofRAK

      Probably.

    • http://twitter.com/AvengingJM Avenging Jack Murphy

      If Quentin gave permission for a trade I wouldn’t mind seeing Blanks in LF regularly. But Bud Black’s thinking the same thing . . . and he would put #AlexiAdventurista in left.

    • Tyler

      I think they both deserve to get a steady stream of at-bats, as much as I like Norf him and Veneable should be the odd guys out. We’re obviously not competing this year, give the young guys at bats – and that certainly includes Alonso.

  • KC

    I think the best OF combo (at least offensively) is Quentin/Maybin/Blanks. Deno and Venable are nothing more than 4th and 5th outfielders who should be used in short stretches. Neither are regulars. When Maybin’s ready, Kotsay will go on the DL.