The Padres new “5-Win Pass” has already been thoroughly critiqued at other Padres blogs, like Gwynntelligence and Gaslamp Ball, and even somewhat at the Union-Tribune, so I won’t get too into its overall shortcomings here. In short, among all the new innovative, month-long ticket promotions across MLB, the Padres plan has the worst value and strangely incentivizes fans to root for the Padres to lose.
But, if you’re still thinking about buying in, how long should you expect the promotion to last? The kicker, remember, is that it ends once the Padres win five games at home. As others have noted, this promotion is for the month of June, when the Padres are set to face the not-so-intimidating slate of the Rockies, Royals, Reds, Tigers, and Braves at home (with a single game against the Dodgers).
I used the Log5 method, popularized by Bill James many years ago, to estimate the Padres chances of winning each game. Instead of using straight winning percentage or even an adjusted winning percentage, I used Baseball Propsectus’ rest-of-the-season winning percentage for each team. This should give us a better estimate of each team’s true talent level, instead of relying on the relatively small sample of the season’s first month and a half. I also included home field advantage into the formula, since the home team in baseball wins about 54 percent of the time.