Fangraphs is releasing Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections one team at a time, and recently it was the new look Padres’ turn on the mic.

I’ve developed quite an affinity for projections lately. I like projections because they take the emotion that naturally occurs in things that are awesome like baseball and removes it. Normally emotion is a good thing. It’s what makes baseball fun. But emotion also make it easier to be wrong, which is less fun.

Looking at the amount of available information about a player is overwhelming. There’s a lot there. What’s important? What isn’t? If a player hit well two years ago, but poorly last year, what can we expect this year? What if he got on base well but slugged poorly two years ago, but those were reversed last year. What can we expect then?

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Today’s article is inspired by long-time Ducksnorts reader Robby Deming:

Robby raises a good question, which I’ll attempt to answer in a moment. But first, how weak was last year’s Padres bullpen? Acknowledging that ERA is an imperfect representation of reliever performance, here’s how Padres bullpens have fared during the Petco Park era: Read More…

With Spring Training just underway, along with countless position battles to be waged and players to be considered, an obscene amount of season forecasting remains to be sorted through. There’s hardly a consensus agreement between prognosticators as to how the 2013 will end (hence, the maxim “that’s why they play the game”), and it’s interesting to see just how much some of these season hypotheses differ writer-to-writer, analyst-to-analyst, statistician-to-statistician. As explored previously on this site, fans are oftentimes divided as optimists or cynics – left to make determinations after sifting through the evidence of others or a more abstract gut feeling. While it’s anyone’s guess how the Padres will finish the 2013 season, I did discover that there was a big difference between how sabermetricians viewed their chances (see: not good) compared to the rest of the community.

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In case you weren’t paying attention.
Come on now. Pay attention.

Here at Padres Public, we’re all about the Padres. And the Padres. But mostly the Padres. When we’re not talking about the Padres, that is.

Always enjoy responsibly. Don’t read and drive.

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