what's brewing on the padres farm system

After starting our What’s Brewing On The Farm series, we thought we would put it all together by publishing our own top Padres prospects list. It’s important to note that while we’ve seen a few of these players in person, we aren’t scouts or experts. We follow the Padres farm and collect as much info as we can from a variety of real experts.

What follows is a list based on mixing those opinions, and our own preferences of the importance of a player’s qualities. It’s also a mixture of each contributor’s thoughts into one final result. So throw on your AJ Preller approved bucket hat, it’s about to get real prospecty in here.

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Series intro and week no. 1
Week no. 2
Week no. 3

Carlos Asuaje, 2B, Triple-A El Paso

Asuaje might best be described as a high floor prospect. Acquired as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade last offseason, he’s already spent significant time at three different positions (second base, third base, and left field) while showing off on-base skills and some occasional power at the plate. Even if he doesn’t develop into some kind of everyday monster—and there’s a good chance he doesn’t—there’s a place on every major-league team’s bench for a player with this skill-set.

Presumably, Asuaje is good at—or at least working on—other things that would make him valuable in a utility role, like base running or being able to get down a bunt or clubhouse meal spread manners. Of course, that’s the floor. Before you toss Asuaje into the Geoff Blum bin, consider that, two years ago, he racked up 65 extra-base hits between Boston’s Single-A and High-A affiliates, including the rare extra-base hit triple double (24 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs) in just 90 games at Single-A Greenville. After a subpar season last year at this dish, Asuaje has rebounded nicely this year with an .847 OPS through 515 plate appearances, although careful reader’s will note that performance’s context (the hitter-friendly PCL).

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Andrew Cashner. Gone. Matt Kemp. Gone. Melvin Upton Jr. Gone. Fernando Rodney. Gone. James Shields. Gone. Twelve out of thirteen draft picks from the first ten rounds of the 2016 Amateur Draft signed. Over $60 million in international signings so far, and that’s just since July 2nd.

One thing that all of these trades, draft picks, and international signings say to me is that Lake Elsinore is going to be the perfect place for Padres fans to watch baseball on a regular basis. And, it’s looking like it’s going to be that way for a couple of years, at least.

I’ll be honest, I should have written at least part of this earlier in the season. But the influx of talent to the lower levels of the minor leagues made it relevant again.

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Hey, here’s the thing: Nobody really knows nothin’ about these kids.

I don’t mean that literally, of course. There are really, really smart people at places like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB (et. cetera) who know a ton about these guys—they know home-to-first times and statistics and what the scouts are saying and how many pets each player has had. What they don’t know—and, really, what they can’t know—is how these players are going to develop. Are they going to stay healthy? Are they going to find that third pitch or that perfect swing? Are they going to be the low-ceiling pitcher who turns into Jake Arrieta or the fringy bat who becomes Paul Goldschmidt? Are they going to get sidetracked with fame and money?

Go back to the 2009 draft (or any draft). The Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall that year, which was, at the time, a super-obvious pick. And what a pick it was! Strasburg’s been worth 17 WAR, he’s currently one of the best pitchers in the game, and he recently signed a relatively team-friendly contract extension. Whew . . . great pick!

Except it was a terrible pick, because a player named Mike Trout was available. In fact, Trout was available when the Padres took Donavan Tate third overall and when the Orioles took Matt Hobgood fifth overall and when the A’s took Grant Green 13th overall and when the Diamondbacks took Bobby Borchering 16th overall and . . . [insert any team and any pick before No. 25 here]. That year Baseball America’s scouting report compared Trout to Aaron Rowand while mentioning that his bat was “not a sure thing, but he has a chance to be a solid-average hitter with average or better power.” Mike Trout was once just another guy.

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