Project this!

Last week, I shared with you the 2013 ZiPS projections for your/my/our San Diego Padres. Now I’ve taken things a step further and figured out the average / mean projections for your/my/our starting Padres (and there’s a lot of them) based on all the systems listed by Fangraphs: ZiPS, Steamer, Oliver and Bill James. Here they are, without commentary:

(Editor’s note: Feel free to provide your own commentary)

Quentin .350 126 492
Headley .345 123 640
Grandal .334 116 447
Alonso .325 110 600
Gyorko .320 107 544
Venorfable .316 104 935
Forsythe .309 99 303
Maybin .308 98 577
Cabrera .288 85 486
Hundley .286 84 446

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  • Headley is good. (Expert Analysis)

  • Just fyi, Ray. Bill James’ projections have to be scaled downwards. He projects the league, as a whole, to produce at a higher BABIP, AVG, OBP, and SLG than the league ever has, by a significant margin. If you try to use his unadjusted numbers in building a (standard lin/log regression) model, the coefficient comes out as 0…which means it’s entirely useless. After adjusting, it’s non-zero but still low. I would suggest you throw his projections out altogether — and you can replace it with CAIRO, which is available free online and reasonably predictive.

    • Melvin

      Thanks for the info.

  • If we are getting that level of production for 500 ABs from Quentin, I may have to become much more optimistic about this season.

    Nice showing from Gyorko for a rookie season, too.