As you may have heard, this year MLB is collecting more information about various goings on during baseball games. The system is called Statcast, and while its ceiling is high, it also has a lot to prove before I feel comfortable trusting it in the show. I think of Statcast as a fun new toy we’re all learning how to use properly.
One thing we can now measure is the velocity of the baseball after being hit. We can then take each of those measurements and come up with an average over time. My plan is to use that average batted ball velocity to find hitters who have been un/lucky on balls hit into play.
For example: a batter might be hitting balls hard, which is good. But he might happen to be hitting them right at defenders, which is bad. If a hitter is squaring up on a ball consistently, eventually those hits will start dropping. But figuring out how long “eventually” means will be the hard part. On the other hand, weak contact can sometimes find holes in a defense creating the appearance of good hitting when good luck on ball placement has more to do with the success.
We can use baseballsavant.com, a fantastic tool to view a ton of new Statcast info. Unfortunately there’s no way I can find to sort by team. So I’ve taken the liberty to compile a list of Padres starters’ average batted ball velocity, average batted ball distance, and MLB rank with a minimum 25 ABs. This is as of 5/17:
Name | Avg Velo | Distance (ft) | MLB Rank (of 293) |
Jedd Gyorko | 89.8 | 138.9 | 100 |
Justin Upton | 89.3 | 156.5 | 115 |
Will Middlebrooks | 89.1 | 168.4 | 128 |
Matt Kemp | 89.0 | 133.5 | 131 |
Yonder Alonso | 88.3 | 125.8 | 165 |
Derek Norris | 88.1 | 181.1 | 173 |
Wil Myers | 88.0 | 126.6 | 178 |
Cory Spangenberg | 87.2 | 144.0 | 209 |
Yangervis Solarte | 86.8 | 148.2 | 221 |
Alexi Amarista | 85.5 | 112.3 | 244 |
You may notice personal favorite player Jedd Gyorko atop the list. You probably did notice since I made it the title to this post. Jedd’s hitting the ball the hardest on the team. Based on his batted ball velocity, the average batted ball velocities of Gyorko’s replacements, and Jedd’s history of hitting baseballs long distances, I still think he deserves to start at second base most every day.
Also of note, the Padres’ measured batted ball velocity as a team seems low. I have no idea why that may be. It could be an issue with the measurement tools at Petco, my understanding of the team’s ability to hit balls hard being wrong, general weirdness, or something else entirely. In any event, here’s a selection of former Padres, other Sacrifice Bunt favorite players, and some notable players:
Name | Avg Velo | Distance (ft) | MLB Rank (of 293) |
Giancarlo Stanton | 97.4 | 204.7 | 1 |
Yasmani Grandal | 94.5 | 143.8 | 7 |
Cameron Maybin | 92.4 | 174.5 | 27 |
Everth Cabrera | 88.7 | 85.4 | 138 |
Kyle Blanks | 88.4 | 166.7 | 153 |
Seth Smith | 88.2 | 171.6 | 169 |
Nori Aoki | 87.8 | 88.9 | 184 |
Chase Headley | 85.3 | 143.6 | 249 |
Billy Hamilton | 81.9 | 151.9 | 287 |
Don’t tell Dustin about Yasmani Grandal.
If you’d like more details about batted ball data, the awesome Tony Blengino at Fangraphs has some outrageously thorough work (Part 1, Part 2) worth checking out.