Alternate title: 7 Crazy Arbitration Avoiding Numbers That Will SHOCK You To The Core

It’s everyone’s favorite time of year again! The Padres recently came to terms on one year deals with 5 players, which means all their arbitration eligible guys are signed save starter Andrew Cashner.

Economist Matt Swartz developed a system for projecting arbitration salaries and interestingly, there seems to be a pattern of Padre players receiving more money in deals to avoid arbitration than they were expected to be awarded. Printed on the internet here for your reading pleasure are the projected, actual, and how much more or less than projected dollars each arbitration eligible Padre received. Numbers are in millions.

Projected in arbitration Actual Difference
Chase Headley $10.00 $10.53 $0.53
Ian Kennedy $5.80 $6.10 $0.30
Eric Stults $3.00 $2.75 -$0.25
Andrew Cashner $2.40 ??? $0.00
Everth Cabrera $2.20 $2.45 $0.25
Tyson Ross $1.30 $1.98 $0.68
Tim Stauffer $1.20 $1.60 $0.40
Kyle Blanks $1.00 $0.99 -$0.01
Total $1.89

It’s worth keeping in mind that these┬ásalaries are negotiated between the team and the player based on expected arbitration awards. That means years of service is considered, plus all the weird stats that arbitration panels value for some reason. The Padres aren’t simply handing out raises that are arrived at, (ahem) arbitrarily.

And┬áthe increase isn’t likely to be Padres specific. I’m guessing higher revenues in the sport through cable television deals and the salary cap on amatuer players are the cause behind these bigger salary numbers, as we’ve seen increased costs per win on the free agent market as well.

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