2013 ZiPS Projections

Yesterday, while the rest of the Padres Public team was at FanFest, hobnobbing with the elite and losing their objectivity, I was here working. Then our site had a hiccup and I couldn’t post this article until today.

I think I should’ve changed the intro.

Anyway, I’ve noticed that this year’s ZiPS projections for the Padres have gone by unnoticed.

You’re going to have to click through to get the whole story but here are some highlights for the lazier among you:

-Headley leads the team with +4.3 WAR. That’s obviously down from his breakout 2012 campaign but it is in line with what he produced in 2010 and 11. Also, I want to point out that ZiPS projects Headley being +2 defensively, which is a bit modest considering that he has a career 6.8 UZR/150.

-The projections have the starting eight (nine if you count Venorfable as two people) combining for +20 WAR in 4649 plate appearances. Last year, the starting eight as we know it now combined for +25 WAR in 4096 plate appearances. That would be a 30% drop in productivity.

-Adding up the team’s combined WAR is not a particularly accurate way of determining their expected W-L record but what the heck, let’s do it anyway. ZiPS projects 70-71 wins for the 2013 Padres.

Read the whole thing over at Fangraphs.

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  • Venorfia/Venorfable? Is it the latter because Will will get more ABs?

    Either way thanks for posting this. I had missed it.

    • Venorfable just sounds funny.

      • Chill Venorfia

      • Gloccamorra

        Some blogger should ask to interview him.

  • Gloccamorra

    I usually shake my head at projections, because they generally use the previous few years, usually three, and weight the aggregate. That doesn’t work with rookies, young players with limited records, and players who had injuries/rehab periods during the stretch that was used. Last year, they even listed Eulogio De La Cruz as a Padre when he was released in 2009, and had pitched for Milwaukee in 2011 (he pitched for the Cubs AAA team last year). That doesn’t inspire confidence in the numbers generated.