De-laminating RISP

I haven’t watched a lot of Padres baseball this season, at least not yet.  One of the games I did get to watch/listen to was Andrew Cashner vs Jose Fernandez in Miami, and I remember Uncle Teddy saying ‘well that’s the first time the leadoff hitter’s been on today’ when Nick Hundley singled to lead off he eighth.  I began to wonder how often has the Padres leadoff hitter reached?  And since I was looking at that, why not breakdown their hitting with Runners in Scoring Position to see how bad it really is.

We’ll tackle the two separately.

The Padres have had 80 offensive innings (read OFF-ensive, not o-FEN-sive) so far in 2014.  Their leadoff hitter is reaching 28% of the time (23 innings).  Some specifics:

  • The leadoff hitter reached 5 times on Tuesday in Cleveland; that’s a season high. It’s also the only  time the leadoff hitter reached in the majority of innings they batted.  Padres lost 8-6.
  • In their three wins, the leadoff hitter reached at least first base 3x (beat LA 3-1); 2x (beat Miami 4-2); and 3x (beat CLE 2-1).
  • Everth Cabrera has lead off the game by getting on base in 4 of their 9 games, which strikes me as pretty good.
  • The leadoff hitter has reached 8x in 27 ‘first third’ innings (29.6%); 6x in 27 ‘second third’ innings (22.2%); and 9x in 26 ‘third third’ innings (34.6%).  Guess the Padres have had better success against opposing team bullpens.

I don’t have any league numbers to compare this to, just thought it was interesting.

For RISP, I broke the situations down by runner on second, runner on third, and runners on second and third.  I basically ignored situations where there may have also been a runner on first.  I further broke it down by 0, 1 and two-out situations.  The Padres have walked 8 times in RISP-situations (once intentionally), and have a sac fly.  Including those items returns an OBP of .214 (18-84).  Much better. For each situation, here’s how they’re hitting.

RISP ACouple of things:

  • Over half of their RISP at bats have come with only the runner at second in scoring position (47).
  • They’ve gotten exactly one person to third with no outs. One.  That was Chris Denorfia in the eighth inning of last Sunday’s game with Miami.  He scored later in the inning on a sac fly.
  • They have four two-out hits with a runner in scoring position (.156), but those 4 hits have plated 7 of the 16 runs scored out of these situations.
  • They’re hitting better with two runners in scoring position, but not by much (.210), and having two runners in scoring position hasn’t happened much (19 AB total).  That’s 6% of their total at-bats this season.

All the normal small sample size comments apply, of course.

Thanks to all who voted in the #PadresPA contest.

I still insist on two spaces after a period.  I post on Tuesdays and at random other times.

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