San Diego Padres Player Prop Bets

Editor’s Note: This article began prior to Chase Headley’s injury announcement. The original thought behind this article was to highlight real Padres player props that you could bet on at various gambling locations. However, almost all of the Padres player prop bets were Chase Headley-centric. Obviously, those bets make little sense now. So, what do you do when life gives you lemons? I don’t know…gin and tonics? In either event, we are switching gears. Other than the one’s indicated, I have made up possible Padres player props that COULD exist…but don’t. Also, I’m not rewriting the part I already did because A) my writing windows are quite small at the moment; B) laziness. Enjoy! 

So, here we are. Opening Day is both within our sights yet still seems so far away. Which gives you just enough time to quit your job, head to Vegas and let it ride on MLB prop bets. Imagine it now. You, sucking down cigars and Italian espresso, wearing a fedora and dark tinted glasses. Professional gambler, straight out of central casting.

But before you leave your mundane 9-5 job behind for a life of opulence and buffets, you are going to need a plan. That’s what I’m here for. And what better way to build up that bank roll than by betting on your favorite team, the San Diego Padres.

 
Editor’s Note: As a general rule I don’t bet on my teams. Which means no betting on the Padres, Chargers and Arizona Wildcats. Exceptions exist because, well, it’s a made up rule and I have limited self-control. Also, no guarantees are made with these choices. And as I am not personally a professional gambler, continue at your own risk. 
 

Prop bets, for the uninitiated, are bets specific to one player, team, or even events during an individual game. For example, during the Super Bowl, the largest single day for prop betting, you could have bet on anything from the jersey number of the player to score first to how long it would take Alicia Keys to sing the National Anthem.

As we near the start of the season, let’s take a look at some of the prop bets you can bet on that are specific to the Padres. MLB prop bets is something I’ve written about every year since I’ve had a blog but this will be the first year I’ve made it Padres specific. Last year I went 4-3 (mediocre) but 3-0 on Padres specific bets (Maybin SB, Street Saves, Padres W/L).

 

Chase Headley Total Regular Season Hits*

Line: O/U 157.5 Hits

Pick: OVER.

Why?

2012 hit total = 173. 2010 hit total = 161. In 2011, he only got a 110 hits though he also only played in 113 games. So basically, this is a pick on his health as much as anything. Provided he stays health, Headley will hit the over without issue. (Note: I actually think this is still possible despite Headley’s injury. Assuming he is back sometime in April I would still take the Over though with far less confidence obviously.)

 

Chase Headley vs Brett Lawrie Most RBI*

Line: Headley -10.5

Pick: Chase Headley.

Why?

Headley led the National League in RBI last season. And even if he doesn’t reach those lofty heights he still nearly tripled Lawrie’s RBI total of 48. Money in the bank despite his current injury.

 

Chase Headley vs Hanley Ramirez Most HRs*

(This one is actually still worth following as they are both out to start the season)

Line: Headley -1

Pick: Ramirez.

Why?

Ramirez only hit over 30 HRs once in his career. So has Chase. The issue is that Chase’s previous high before last years 31 was 12. Ramirez’s previous 2nd highest total (highest being 33) is 29. Ramirez seems consistent in that he will hit 20 HRs a season. If Chase repeats 2012, this loses. But this is more a bet for consistency.

 

Yonder Alonso Doubles

Line: O/U 29.5

Pick: Over

Why?

Last year Yonder Alonso proved to be a doubles machine despite his…um…”speed.” Which I suppose means he could be quite a triples guy in Jose Reyes’ body. But I digress. In Spring Training he has 2 doubles in 48 ABs. What does that mean? Probably not a whole lot. What really makes me hesitate is the fences moving in. How many of Alonso’s 39 doubles in 2012 would be HRs? 10? Probably not. I think Alonso goes below last year, but exceeds the 29.5 line.

 

Cameron Maybin Stolen Bases

Line: O/U 35

Pick: Under

Why?

In his first four seasons (in admittedly sporadic play) Maybin stole a total of 19 bases. Then, in his first season in San Diego, he stole 40 bases in 137 games. But in 2012 that number dropped to 26 despite playing in 1o more games. In part this was due to the fact that he was on base less (.323 OBP vs .306 OBP). More interestingly? In the 2nd half of 2012, when Maybin increased almost every statistical category (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS) he stole 6 LESS bases. Was he hitting more extra base hits? No, as he had 17 vs 8 extra base hits (excluding HRs where you obviously aren’t stealing bases). I don’t know why the drop off in SBs happen in 2012. But it seems clear that the 40 bases in 2011 was more outlier than anything. Maybin is probably a 20-25 stolen base guy with 40 stolen base potential. Still, 35 is a lot. Last year, 1o guys in MLB stole more than 35. I don’t think that’s Maybin’s game. At least not to that degree. Go under.

 

Will Huston Street Be a Padre On August 1st? 

Yes: +220

No: -160

Pick: No

Why? 

Yesterday, Jim Bowden sent Padres fans on Twitter into a tizzy over his tweet about a possible trade between San Diego and Detroit. In fact, the Ghost watched it all unfold in is omnipotent way and wrote about it yesterday. It turned out to be much ado about nothing (and totally false) but that means little to this bet. What means a great deal is: Huston Street is a commodity that the Padres may not need as much as some other team out there. But, let’s say they are in contention come the trade deadline? With Gregerson behind him, Street is likely the most expendable piece on this roster. Come August 1st, Street will be gone.

 

With the Fences Debate Over, What Will Twitter Fans Argue About the Most in 2013? 

Inactivity during Off-Season: 9/1

Bringing Back the Brown: 12/1

Carlos Quentin is Hurt…Again: 4/1

Grandal Isn’t the Same Player Since His Suspension: 5/1

These Promotional Days Suck!: 2/1

Tommy John Surgery: 3/2

Pick: Grandal

Why?

Gut call here but my biggest fear of the 2013 season beyond a debilitating injury to Headley, Luebke, Cashner, Maybin or Alonso is that Grandal, who showed so much promise in 2012, comes back from his 50-game suspension a little less Grandal. There’s no way to know if the Padres made a trade for a player that was perhaps a paper tiger offensively until he comes back. There’s no way to know how a young player who has so much expectation on him from a team building toward the future will handle a 50-game suspension. But Grandal is one of the key pieces of this team moving forward at a very important position. If he isn’t “right” when he returns, that will be a serious cause for concern. And right now, I fear that will be exactly what happens.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins (this one is real per Sportsbook.com)

Line: 74.5 Games

Pick: Over

Why?

The Padres won 76 games last year which would already put them over the total for this bet. Over at “C70 At The Bat,” a Cardinals fan blog, I participated in their preseason series of team previews called “Playing Pepper.”   Here’s what I had to say about how many wins I thought the Padres could have in 2013:

Last year the team went 76-86. This despite a DL list that neared 20 names at one point and receiving starts from such pitchers as Eric StultsKip Wells, and Ross Ohlendorf. I think this team is building toward 2014. They aren’t there yet but they are better than they were in 2012. I look at the 42-33 2nd half record and think it carries over a bit. I’ll be conservative and say 80-82 and a third place finish ahead of Colorado and AZ. 

I stand by that. If anything, I am probably being a little conservative. The fact is that, despite making basically no off-season moves, this team is better than last by virtue of better health and one more year of experience for younger players. Last year the Padres went 17-35 in the first two months. I don’t think they start off that slow despite the injury to Headley. Can this team go .500? I think that not only can they but that should be the expectation this year. Luebke will be back come the middle of the season. Cashner is nearly back now. Those two arms alone make this pitching staff better than it was at almost any time last year. The offense is good and improving. If they can go 20-30 during the first 50 games (while Grandal is out) then hitting the over on this line should not be a problem.

 

So there you have it. Padres player props. Let me know which one’s you’d take and if you have some more fun props that we should consider, leave them in the comments!

 
 
 *Real Life prop bets prior to Headley’s injury
 
You can find my nonsense at Padres Public every Friday. And follow me on Twitter @LeftCoastBias for 140 characters worth of nonsense on a variety of subjects ranging from Padres to Pearl Jam to PGA Golf. And I like alliteration.

You are encouraged to comment using an exisitng Twitter, Facebook, or Google account. Upvote comments you find helpful, and only downvote comments that do not belong. The downvote is not a 'disagree' button.

  • Better health, eh? We sticking with that?

    • For now, yes. For now. 3/5ths of the starting rotation was on the DL last year. They didn’t have Quentin until May 28th. Even with Headley missing the first few weeks of the season and Kelly’s possible surgery they are doing better than last year in the health department.

      • With Luebke, Wieland and Kelly out, it could be argued that 3/5ths of the rotation is on the DL this year.

      • I suppose that’s a fair way to look at it. Pessimistic, but fair. So, are you saying you would take the under at 74.5 wins?

      • That’s tough because that’s right where I think they’re going to end up. I think they could swing anywhere between 72 and 77 wins.

      • And that’s how Vegas makes their money.