Whipping Out My Big Ol’ Poll

Now that Spring Training is just about over, and the Opening Day/Night/Morning/Twilight/Afternoon/Whatever roster has been pretty much set, it’s time to get serious.

Get down to brass tacks.

Figure out the bottom line.

Strike while the iron is hot.

Put on your game faces, because it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Just kidding! It’s just a poll, not the end of the world as we know it.

And I feel fine.

Right before Cactus League games started, we all got together in The Bar and made our predictions on what the Padres win total for 2014 would be. The consensus was about 83 to 85 wins. But all of us made the stipulation that health was a key to our predictions.

Since then, the injury bug has hit the Padres, as Nate detailed in his Monday post:

  • February 22 – Chase Headley is sidelined for over 3 weeks with a calf strain. Headley has since returned this past week, but who knows how missing most of spring training will affect his season.
  • March 2 – Cameron Maybin tears his bicep diving to make a catch on a fly ball off the bat of Juan Uribe. Initially diagnosed as a 2-3 month injury, it was decided he did not need surgery, and the prognosis became 4-6 weeks. Maybin has already begun working on his rehab in hopes of returning at some point in April.
  • March 15 – Rehabbing starter Joe Wieland, eyeing a return from Tommy John surgery, reports triceps soreness after a start against the Dodgers. An MRI thankfully revealed no ligament damage, however he is scheduled for arthroscopic surgery this upcoming Tuesday, and will be out until at least the All Star break.
  • March 22 – Padres Manager Bud Black announces that Josh Johnson, signed this offseason as a free agent, will start the season on the disabled list and miss at least 4-5 weeks with flexor strain in his right forearm.

On some positive notes, Yasmani Grandal played in his first spring training game in mid-March after his cringe-inducing knee injury last year. Chase Headley came back from the calf strain and hasn’t suffered some kind of unfortunate injury while sliding.

And no one has been busted for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs this year.
::knocks on wood::

I was the black sheep of the group, in that I predicted 81 wins if everything went perfectly (which I almost immediately dismissed as a possibility) and 78 wins if everything, lets say, didn’t go perfectly.

So, what say you? How many wins do you think the Padres will have this season?

[polldaddy poll=7907525]

Me? I’m sticking 78-79 wins. Mostly because I’m a big believer in sticking with your first answer on multiple choice tests.

I’m still hoping for a .500 season, but I’m far less optimistic that will happen. The injuries so far haven’t been earth-shattering, in that I think the Padres have enough depth to overcome them for the short-term, but they still worry me.

Still worried. Isn’t that the basic definition of being a Padres fan?

*****

I write something for Padres Public just about every week on Wednesday morning. Follow me on Twitter, as most people can barely stand me in 140-character bursts, let alone after 500+ words.

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  • VM David
  • DaveRiceSD

    I wanted to say 84-86 before, which I thought might have been a tad too optimistic until I read all the cheerleading in the last post. 81-85 allows me to back off that number a bit, though it’s still admittedly optimistic.

  • ballybunion

    Well, winning six of every ten will get you 97 wins, but if that seems too tough, how about 6 of 11? Just six wins and five losses every eleven games will net you 88 wins! Surely the home team can manage THAT!