Just after the draft, I did something ridiculous: I tried to predict all of the signing bonuses for Padres picks in the first 10 rounds. How’d I do?

Alright, not terrible. Not great, but not terrible.

I didn’t see MacKenzie Gore getting slot—or a little over slot, technically—but so be it. Give that dude all the money. Campusano signed for $400,000-plus under slot, which is kind of interesting given that he was considered the top catcher on the board. House signed for slot, which was also something of a surprise. Keating got quite a bit over, which we figured. Homza, Margevicius, and Basabe were right about where we had them. Leasher was more expensive than predicted, but maybe we weren’t considering park factors. The senior signs were cheaper than our guesses, but they’re always something of a wild card. After all that, though, one player’s signing bonus stood out (and completely destroyed my overall guesstimate).

Blake Hunt signed for $1,600,000, nearly twice his slot value of $858,600. I figured he’d be an under-slot signing.

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Sometimes things can get a little fuzzy after an evening at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you may have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (31-46) scored fewer runs than the Atlanta Braves (37-39), 3-0, last night in the first of three games at Petco Park.

Jhoulys Chacin (6-7, 4.76) allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out four in seven innings. Johan Camargo doubled in the fourth inning to drive in Matt Adams and Tyler Flowers. Camargo was thrown out trying to take third base. Ender Inciarte scored on Nick Markakis‘ sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

Sean Newcomb (1-2, 1.48) shutout the Padres over six innings, allowing six hits and a walk while striking out eight. In total, the Padres struck out fourteen times, seven of which were on called strikes.

Tonight Luis Perdomo (2-4, 4.56) gets the start against Bartolo Colon (2-7, 7.78) starting at 7:10pm PDT.
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Here’s the quick Carter Capps backstory, which I promise will take fewer than 11 minutes and 22 seconds to read: Capps has a really weird, hopping delivery; he had one of the most dominant reliever seasons you’ll see for the Marlins back in 2015; he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016; he was acquired by the Padres in the Andrew Cashner trade at last season’s deadline; his really weird, hopping delivery was (again) ruled legal in the offseason.

Capps found himself in Albuquerque, New Mexico on Sunday night, with Triple-A El Paso, trying to work his way back to the majors after TJ. Capps’ rehab has been a bit of an up-and-down process so far, featuring a few starts and stops and 10 walks in 14 innings. On the plus side, he’s been pitching regularly in June, and he had five straight scoreless appearances headed into last night’s action.

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It’s June and the Padres are 31–45; that means it’s the time of the year when mid-season prospect list start popping up. Last week Padres ProspectusEast Village Times, and Phillip unveiled lengthy and well-done Padres prospect lists, and somewhere in his east coast palatial estate David Marver is (apparently) working on a top 110 or something. I figured, what the heck, here’s mine.

(all stats through some point this weekend)

11. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Single-A Fort Wayne

You might glance at Fernando Tatis Jr.’s numbers and wonder what all the fuss is about. Tatis is hitting “just” .260/.338/.430 in 296 plate appearances. He’s striking out 26.3 percent of the time and walking 9.5 percent of the time. He has 12 steals in 20 tries. There are two things here:

1. Once you adjust for age, those numbers are quite good. In the Midwest league there are only 11 18-year-old position players. Of them, only offensive wunderkind Vladimir Gurerro Jr. has a higher wRC+ than Tatis (146 to 116). Keibert Ruiz is tied with Tatis, but five of the others—including teammates Jack Suwinski, Hudson Potts, and Reinaldo Ilarraza—have figures of 80 or lower. Flip over to the South Atlantic League, the Midwest League’s east coast cousin, and it’s more of the same. There are only two 18-year-old position players there, and neither has a wRC+ better than 110.

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Sometimes things can get a little fuzzy after a Sunday afternoon at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you may have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (31-45) scored fewer runs than the Detroit Tigers (33-42) in their three game series finale yesterday at Petco Park, 7-5.

Clayton Richard (5-7, 4.42) gave up five runs on nine hits and two walks in five and a third innings with three strikeouts. Mikie Mahtook drove in Justin Upton with a triple, James McCann‘s double score Mahtook, and McCann scored on a Jose Iglesias single, all in the fourth inning. In the sixth inning, Nicholas Castellanos‘ two-run home run tied the game at five. In the ninth inning, Mahtook singled off Brandon Maurer to drive in Ian Kinsler and Upton before being tagged trying to take second base for the third out.

Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.53) allowed five runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five in four innings. Wil Myers hit a solo home run in the first inning. In the second inning, Erick Aybar led off with a home run and Matt Szczur tripled to drive in Hunter Renfroe. Richard’s squeeze bunt in the fourth inning scored Aybar and Renfroe scored on Jose Pirelas‘ ground-rule double.

The Padres have the day off today. The Atlanta Braves (36-39) come to Petco Park for three games beginning Tuesday at 7:10pm PDT. Jhoulys Chacin (6-6, 4.95) gets the first start against Sean Newcomb (0-2, 1.96).
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Sometimes things can get a little fuzzy after an evening at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you may have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (31-44) scored more runs than the Detroit Tigers (32-42) last night, 7-3, at Petco Park.

Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 6.60) allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and a walk with five strikeouts in six innings pitched. In the fifth inning, Justin Upton scored on Andrew Romine‘s double and Romine took third when Hunter Renfroe threw the ball into the Tigers’ dugout. Romine then scored on Jose Iglesias‘ single and Iglesias took second base when Austin Hedges missed the throw home by Chase d’Arnaud. Romine drove in Upton again in the seventh inning with a single.

Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 6.75) gave up two runs (one earned) on two hits with no walks and four strikeouts in six innings. d’Arnaud scored on Lamet’s sacrifice bunt in the first inning, but Lamet was safe after an error by Sanchez. Jose Pirela scored on Wil Myers‘ sacrifice fly in the sixth inning. In the eighth inning, Hector Sanchez hit a pinch-hit two-run home run, the Padres loaded the bases and Carlos Asuaje and Myers scored on Cory Spangenberg single, and Hedges drove in Renfroe with a bunt single.

Allen Cordoba was hit in the hand by a Sanchez pitch in the third inning and left the game.

The Padres try for the sweep in this afternoon’s series finale. Clayton Richard (5-7, 4.20) takes the mound against Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.25) starting at 1:40pm PDT.
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Let’s face it, the bunt gets a bad rap these days, especially the sacrifice bunt. We’re in an era where some form of analytics plays a roll in every front office, and air-ball revolutionaries roam the dugouts; nobody on the periphery of either movement is espousing the virtues of the bunt. Shoot, there are multiple varieties of shirts available for anyone who wants to flaunt their anti-bunt lifestyle.

I’ll concede that the pure sacrifice bunt is often a bad play, the kind where you’re telegraphing the bunt early, where the defense is anticipating it, and where there’s little chance of anything good happening beyond moving a runner up a base in exchange for an out. When getting one run is super important, and maybe the batter isn’t so hot, this can be a good play. Often, though, both the run and win expectancy will drop if you pull off a “successful” sacrifice bunt in this scenario.

Take a look at Franchy Cordero‘s bunt from last night, though. To set the scene: the Padres are up one in the seventh, with Cory Spangenberg on first and one out. Forgetting the tank here, a run is important but not necessarily critical in the context of trying to win the game.

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Sometimes things can get a little fuzzy after an evening at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you may have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (30-44) scored more runs than the Detroit Tigers (32-41), 1-0, in the first of three games at Petco Park last night.

Luis Perdomo (2-4, 4.56) allowed two hits and five walks with six strikeouts in six shutout innings. Perdomo didn’t give up a hit in the first four innings, but walked five, until Andrew Romine led off the fifth inning with a single.

Michael Fulmer (6-6, 3.29) gave up one run on two hits and four walks while striking out eight in seven innings. Austin Hedges returned to the lineup and hit a double in the second inning to drive in Cory Spangenberg for the only run of the game.

Tonight, Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 7.50) gets the start against Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 7.96) with first pitch scheduled for 7:10pm PDT.
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what's brewing on the padres farm system

Michael Kelly, RHP, Double-A San Antonio

While we wait for Cal Quantrill, Adrian Morejon, and the rest of the Famers that will be the foundation of the Padres’ dynasty (2021-2025), we must first drudge through “Jhoulys Chacin Pitching on the Road” piles of shit and ride Clayton Richard’s stapled shoulder to 5-2 losses.

It’ll be a long time before the Padres rotation is truly great, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to have to wait that long before it’s good. We’ve already seen what Dinelson Lamet’s capable of in his short time with the big club, and Luis Perdomo, while still mostly just stuff and upside, can every now and then give you a 6 IP, 6h, 2er, 1bb, 8k night.

While two OK arms don’t make a good rotation, three might! I wrote about Michael Kelly last year for one of our first What’s Brewing on the Farm segments. Kelly pitched at three different levels last year, including Triple-A El Paso, where he was mostly up and down. He struggled at Lake Elsinore (29.1 IP, 25K, 12BB, 5.83 ERA), looked great in San Antonio (49.2 IP, 49K, 17BB, 2.90 ERA), before getting knocked around again Triple-A (49.2 IP, 41K, 23BB, 4.89 ERA).

Kelly, who’s still only 24 and was a supplemental 1st-round pick back in 2011, has been terrific at Double-A, where he’s pitched the entire season. Even with the caveat that he’s repeating the level and San Antonio is a pitcher-friendly environment, 91 strikeouts in 84.2 innings (15 starts) is impressive.

As I wrote last year, Madfriars had Kelly’s fastball in the mid-90s; with his strikeout numbers, it’s safe to assume not only has he maintained that velocity this year, but his secondary pitches have also started coming along. Kelly will probably be promoted to Triple-A at some point, and considering how mostly trash the rotation is right now, a call up to the big leagues shouldn’t be far off. (Oscar)

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Sometimes things can get a little fuzzy after an afternoon at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you may have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (29-44) scored more runs than the Chicago Cubs (36-35) yesterday, 3-2, at Wrigley Field.

Miguel Diaz (1-1, 6.82) didn’t allow a run before being pulled because of a forearm strain after two and a third innings. Craig Stammen gave up two runs on an Ian Happ 2-run home run in the fourth inning. Phil Maton recorded his first Major League win after a perfect seventh inning.

Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.19) pitched four innings, allowing one run on five hits and three walks while striking out four. Jose Pirela‘s RBI single in the fifth inning drove in Stammen. Erick Aybar hit a solo home run in the sixth inning. In the eighth inning, Luis Torrens drew a bases-loaded walk to score Wil Myers with the go-ahead run.

The Padres travel back to San Diego today and start three games against the Detroit Tigers (32-38) tomorrow at 7:10pm PDT. Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 7.50) starts Friday night against Michael Fulmer (6-5, 3.45).
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