The Padres’ season has gone poorly enough that, according to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report, their postseason chances have shrunk to 2.7 percent. Not only do the Padres trail the division-leading Dodgers by eight and a half games, they trail eight other National League teams, including the Diamondbacks, which makes climbing the playoff mountain all the more difficult. BP currently has the two projected NL wildcard teams, the Pirates and Cubs, winning 89 and 88 games respectively. The Padres would have to go 50-27 the rest of the way to win 89 games, which is a little like playing like the Cardinals have in the first three months of 2015. In other words, not likely.

It’s not as though the Padres have been unlucky. BP’s third-order winning percentage, which uses underlying statistics and strength of schedule to measure team performance, spits out a .422 winning percentage for the Padres, better than only the Brewers, Rockies, Phillies, and White Sox.

The offense has been surprisingly bad, in part because some of the big names have struggled — Matt Kemp, mostly — but also because some glaring offseason holes were left unfilled. Alexi Amarista‘s defense has remained better than expected at short, but he’s hitting .212/.281/.296. That’s a you-better-field-like-Andrelton-Simmons slash line, and Amarista is no Simmons in the field. Will Middlebrooks has shown glimpses of offensive competence surrounded by his usual flail-and-pray approach — his .629 OPS isn’t particularly surprising. Melvin Upton, getting regular playing time in part because of Wil Myers‘ absence, is also (not surprisingly) struggling with the bat, posting a .152/.250/.261 line (just 52 PAs) while inexplicably batting leadoff on seven different occasions.

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Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an evening at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (39-46) scored fewer runs than the Pittsburgh Pirates (48-34) at PNC Park yesterday, 2-1. Pedro Alvarez hit a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the ninth to give the Pirates the victory.

James Shields (7-3, 3.88) allowed on one unearned run in seven innings on two hits and a walk with three strikeouts. Alvarez reached first base on a throwing error with two outs by Yangervis Solarte that allowed Andrew McCutchen to score in the seventh inning. McCutchen had reached base with a one out double.

A.J. Burnett (7-3, 1.99) pitched seven and two-thirds innings, allowing the one run on five hits and three walks with four strikeouts. Alexi Amarista hit a one out, bases loaded sacrifice fly that drove in Yonder Alonso.

Tonight’s game pits Tyson Ross (5-7, 3.63) against Francisco Liriano (5-6, 2.99) at 4:05pm PDT.

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Catch an all new episode of Padres and Pints Social Hour! This week Rick and Chris are joined by the legendary duo, Jesse Agler and Bill Center at Mike Hess Brewing. Apparently it wasn’t wise to have a trash company sponsor your guests.

On a serious note, watch the entire interview with Jesse and the Mike Hess Brewing crew this Friday at Padres Public!

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Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an afternoon at the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (39-45) scored fewer runs than the St Louis Cardinals (53-28) yesterday, 3-1, to split the four game series at Busch Stadium.

Ian Kennedy (4-8, 4.84) gave up all three Cardinals’ runs in six innings on seven hits and no walks with four strikeouts. Tommy Pham went 2-for-4 with a 2-run home run in the third inning and an RBI double in the fifth inning — both with starting pitcher Lance Lynn on base — to account for all three runs.

Lynn (6-4, 2.53) surrendered the Padres’ only run on a Matt Kemp RBI single in the third inning to score Yangervis Solarte. However, Lynn shutout the Padres through the rest of his seven innings pitched, with three hits, three walks, and eight strikeouts.

James Shields (7-3, 4.14) gets the start versus A.J. Burnett (7-3, 2.05) tonight at 4:05pm PDT as the Padres start a three game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-34) at PNC Park.

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Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an entire day searching for parking anywhere near the beach. Or gorging yourself on hot dogs and hamburgers at your friend’s barbecue. Or braving the traffic and the crowds in Coronado to watch the Independence Day parade. Or passed out after drinking a little too many Bud Light Lime-a-Ritas before the Big Bay Boom. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (39-44) scored fewer runs than the St Louis Cardinals (52-28) yesterday, dropping the third game of four by a score of 2-1.

Odrisamer Despaigne (3-6, 4.75) gave up just one run on four hits and a walk with three strikeouts over five innings. Tommy Pham doubled in the sixth inning for his first Major League hit and came around to score on a Matt Carpenter single in the next at-bat. In the eighth inning, with Brandon Maurer pitching, Pham reached on an error by Alexi Amarista, stole second base, and then scored on a Jhonny Peralta sacrifice fly.

Carlos Martinez (9-3, 2.70) pitched six and two-thirds innings, surrendering just one run on eight hits and two walks with five strikeouts. Yangervis Solarte hit a solo home run to lead off the fourth inning.

In this afternoon’s finale, Ian Kennedy (4-7, 4.86) takes on Lance Lynn (5-4, 2.74) at 11:15am PDT at Busch Stadium.

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Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an evening in the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (39-43) scored more runs than the St Louis Cardinals (51-28) yesterday, 2-1 at Busch Stadium. Jedd Gyorko had a solo home run in the seventh inning to tie the game at one, then knocked in Yangervis Solarte in the ninth inning to give the Padres the lead.

Andrew Cashner (3-9, 4.06) pitched six innings, the first three perfect, surrendering the one Cardinals run on three hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Xavier Scruggs ground into a double play in the fifth inning with the bases loaded that allowed Jason Heyward to score from third base.

Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.66) pitched seven innings, giving up one run on five hits and a walk with six strikeouts. Gyorko’s home run led off the seventh inning and Wacha was pulled. In the ninth, Solarte hit a one out triple to right field before Gyorko’s RBI single off Trevor Rosenthal.

Craig Kimbrel faced the minimum number of batters in the bottom of the ninth, with a groundout, a single, and a double play, to record his 21st save.

This afternoon at 11:15am PDT, Odrisamer Despaigne (3-6, 4.94) takes the hill against Carlos Martinez (9-3, 2.80) in the third game of four at Busch Stadium.

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Here’s some stuff I read this week that you might enjoy:

  • Tyson Ross on His Walk Rate (FanGraphs) – Eno Sarris chatted with Ross, who notes that “hitters are just a little more patient with me. The slider maybe isn’t as enticing for guys to chase, or maybe they’re just more aware of it, and they’re just trying to lay off it.” Sarris also talked to Justin Upton and Will Venable about the challenges of hitting at whatever the ballpark in San Francisco is called these days. Good stuff, as always.
  • Stock Watch: Padres’ Giron breaking out (MiLB.com) – With A.J. Preller having sold the farm in an attempt to make the big club relevant again, there hasn’t been a lot of good news on the minor-league front. As Jake Seiner notes, Fort Wayne shortstop Ruddy Giron might be the exception. Just 18 years old, Giron has lit up the Midwest League and drawn praise from TinCaps hitting coach Morgan Burkhart, who says, “He doesn’t look like a power hitter, but the bat path is so good and he has so much bat speed.” Hopefully Preller hasn’t traded him for Chase Utley by the time you read this. [h/t reader LynchMob]. Also on the farm, right-hander Colin Rea is opening some eyes at Double-A San Antonio. In sadder news, Civic Stadium, former home of the then-Padres affiliate Eugene Emeralds, burned down on Monday. Venable has fond memories of the place.
  • We’re Seeing More Strikeouts, But It Takes Many More Pitches To Get Them (FiveThirtyEight) – Rob Arthur examines rising strikeout rates. Among his many findings: “With the revelation that pitchers gradually decline every time they go through the order, there has been a shift toward pulling starters before their performance begins to tumble.” So yeah, the 12-man pitching staff that we’ve all grown to despise ain’t going away any time soon. [h/t reader Keith]
  • Sunday Notes: SABR 45 Snapshots, Spray Charts, Roe (FanGraphs) – David Laurila’s recap of the recently concluded SABR convention in Chicago is filled with goodies. There’s even more fun stuff at the SABR web site. I’m particularly jealous that Cecila Tan got to hang out with REM’s Mike Mills.
  • Murphy learning on the fly at helm of Padres (MLB.com) – Interim manager Pat Murphy shares some thoughts on the latest chapter in his illustrious baseball career: “I think as you get more comfortable, you learn a little more. I don’t know how these things are supposed to go. But I have had an open mind and have tried to learn everything I can. But it still comes down to playing winning baseball.” Winning would be good since according to Dave Cameron (and it’s hard to argue the point), “this might be their only chance for quite a while,” which makes staying positive a challenge for fans.

Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an evening in the pub. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (38-43) scored more runs than the St Louis Cardinals (51-27) yesterday, 5-3 in eleven innings at Busch Stadium. Will Venable hit a two-run home run in the eleventh inning to break a 3-3 tie. Craig Kimbrel pitched the bottom of the eleventh for his 20th save.

Tyson Ross (5-7, 3.63) pitched six innings, allowing three runs on four hits and five walks with six strikeouts. Ross loaded the bases in the first inning with one out and Yadier Molina ground out to the pitcher for the second out, allowing Matt Carpenter to score. In the fifth inning, Carpenter hit a one out line drive to center field to score Tim Cooney. After Jhonny Peralta struck out, Jason Heyward hit a two-out double to score Carpenter.

Cooney (0-0, 5.40), making only his second Major League start, almost matched Ross’ stat line exactly, pitching six innings while surrendering three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks with six strikeouts. Yangervis Solarte hit a solo home run in the second inning with one out to break the Padres’ streak of scoreless innings at 22. Solarte was ejected in the sixth inning for voicing his displeasure with some rather shoddy work by the umpires during the game.  In the fourth, a two-out Austin Hedges single scored Justin Upton, but Hedges was then thrown out at second base to end the inning. Ross hit his first Major League home run with a solo shot in the fifth inning.

Tonight, Andrew Cashner (3-9, 4.22) takes the mound against Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.77) at 5:15pm PDT.

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I’ve got a lot of topics to cover and, like I’ve done a few times in the past, decided to scrunch them all into one post. It’s To and Fro time!

-Man, is it me or has the Chicken and Garry Templeton been EVERYWHERE lately. On the radio, in the newspaper and on TV, every time I turn around I see another interview with one of them. Now that’s no knock against them, because I love both the Chicken and Tempy, but it’s more of an observation on the media aspect. The media has rarely done historical pieces on this team. Corey Brock has done some great pieces over the years on various past players and personnel, but that’s been about it. Perhaps that is the past ownerships fault, since they didn’t acknowledge it’s history at all. Now that the team is recognizing history again, maybe the media is taking note. Or maybe there is something more to it and these two will be inducted into the Padres Hall of Fame this year? In my last post, I had mentioned that there will indeed be new inductees this year. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

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Sometimes things get a little fuzzy after spending an afternoon in the Park At The Park listening to a DJ set by Lil Jon. Here’s a friendly reminder of what you might have missed while you were drinking.

The Padres (37-43) scored fewer runs than the Seattle Mariners (36-42) yesterday afternoon, 7-0, at Petco Park, dropping their third out of four games against the Mariners and giving Seattle possession of the Vedder Cup until at least next season.

The Padres offense once again sputtered behind a pretty good outing from James Shields (7-3, 4.14), who allowed two runs in five and two-thirds innings on four hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts. Robinson Cano hit a leadoff home run to left field in the sixth inning. And Cano knocked in the second run of the game with two outs in the seventh inning with a single to center field that scored Brad MillerDustin Ackley was then thrown out at home by Will Venable to end the inning.

The Mariners then scored another run in the eighth inning on an Austin Jackson sacrifice fly to bring Nelson Cruz in from third base. In the ninth inning, Mike Zunino scored on a Logan Morrison sacrifice fly, Cano then doubled to drive in Seth Smith, and Cruz hit his 20th home run to left field to plate the sixth and seventh Mariners’ runs.

Taijuan Walker (7-6, 4.34) allowed just one hit with seven strikeouts for the Mariners before he was pulled after the sixth inning due to an apparent injury.

The Padres travel to St Louis today to face the Cardinals () to start a ten-game road trip that leads into the All-Star break, mostly due to Comic-Con and all that comes with it. Which means there will not be a game at Petco for three weeks. Tyson Ross (5-7, 3.57) gets the call tonight at 4:15pm PDT at Busch Stadium against TBD, whom, one can only hope, is beatable.

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